Tag Archives: middle east politics

The worsening conflict in Syria

The worsening conflict in Syria

About 2 weeks ago Putin got serious in Syria with the beginning of direct and large-scale military intervention.

Another huge step closer to the abyss.

So let’s just have a look at the main players in this conflict and their real goals and motivations.

Russia:
Putin wants to prop up Assad to keep a strong foothold in the middle east and harbor facilities in the Mediterranean.
They are also backers of Iran and their very recent deployment of sophisticated anti-aircraft missiles is a game changer, because it will cost the Israelis their airspace superiority over Syria, which was a big factor in interrupting Hezbollah’s supply lines from Iran through Syria into Lebanon.
Furthermore the creation of more refugees through russian bombing campaigns puts more pressure on western Europe.! Overnight Putin rose from pariah to player at the chessboard of international politics. He is right about one thing :the west has become weak from his contorted and megalomania perspective !

He actually likes the IS because they gave him a chance to become a player and once they are gone, everybody will turn on him because he is one of the biggest obstacles to relative peace in the area.
So don`t expect any real help from him to fight the IS, vice versa. They are basically helping his own cause.by giving him the excuse to interfere militarily,even so it is mainly to his own advantage.

Assad :
His real goal is straight forward :to keep a strangle hold on power,no matter what. The butcher of Damascus will not go voluntarily and now with russian backing looks firmly entrenched.After Putin, he ist he second largest problem in that area.

Assad opposition parties :
Their goal is to rid Syria of a blood thirsty tyrant, Assad and the Pest of IS. Again, with Putin’s large-scale military engagement, their fortunes have turned for the worse.

Erdoban :
definitely got his own agenda : doesn`t like Assad, but neither the Kurds.Did favour the IS, but after a deal with Obama got a green light to bomb the PKK and now after the downing of a russian fighter jet the russians are bombing the rest of the Kurds for him.Smart move ! basically wants to regain Atta Turks bygone glory. He really is more part of the problem than the solution.

The Kurds :
They are probably a large part of any longterm solution to the problem,
because they are ‘local’ troops and not foreigners.Apart from that they have enough people and economic muscle (oil and gas ) to form their own stable country in the long run and with that stabilize a large area.
They are also tolerant enough to accommodate other ethnic groups.So they should get a lot of support from anybody who really wants to put an end to this quagmire.

Iranian militias and Hezbollah :
They are on Assad side because he guarantees Hezbollah their supply line and they don`t like Sunnis who make up the IS.However, even so they are fighting the IS , in the long run they are more of a problem than part of the
solution.

The IS :
This is the third largest problem. nr 1 : Putin, nr 2 :Assad,nr 3 :the IS. !!!!
Trouble is , they obviously have support from other countries like Saudi Arabia which is Sunny and doesn`t get on with Iran to well.Their recent and intended attacks on the West make their demise a top priority. Cutting off their revenue flow any which way possible is certainly a very important step in the right direction as well as the bombing campaign.
However, without ground troops there will be no permanent success.And as we have seen,Putin, Assad and Erdoban have their own agenda and the removal of the IS is not necessarily in their interest. So don`t expect any real help from there, it`s a lot of smoke and mirrors !!!

Enter the Western Coalition :
They are united in their goal to get rid of the IS, however as we have seen they will really have to navigate around Putin, Assad and to some extend Erduan to achieve this.So the best bet right now is a massive support for the Kurds (peschmergers ),recruiting of young soldiers from the refugee camps (maybe 500 000 should do the job), while hitting supply lines of the IS as well as freezing assets, accounts etc .If need be, Erduan will have to be side lined one way or another to facilitate this and to have a base camp for military ground forces. No western ground forces should be in Syria,they will be viewed as occupying armies.(just look at Afghanistan etc)

The crunch time will come, when those peschmerger armies will eventually face off with Assad army and russian ground troops.If the Kurds have convincingly military strength,only then will Putin and his lackey, Assad, be willing to negotiate.

Negotiating with them now from a position of weakness is counter productive, it will only prolong the war and the suffering.

One final solution for Syria could be,the russians keep all the ports, the north will go to the Kurds and the rest will be given to the respective ethnic groups like sunnies etc.There is certainly no place for Assad above the ground, since he is the root cause of all this.

We basically have 3 mayor front lines in Syria right now :

nr 1 Putin and Assad fighting everybody who opposes Assad`s regime and grip on power, and the IS are not high on their list,vice versa.

nr 2 The Western coalition is fighting the IS while cautiously backing some of Assad opponents, including the Kurds.

nr3 Putin, Assad and Erdoban fighting the Kurds.

As you can see, there are already overlapping interests.

If Putin or Assad were to be taken out of he equation, it would be a game changer.Since this is not likely to happen,the next best bet is to achieve a position of strength from which to negotiate. Since the West doesn`t want to confront Putin militarily, the only option is to put together a `local` army that can do this job with a little help.Enter the Peschmerger
they have proven themselves already.(some body like the Iraqis have proven over and over again that they can`t fight their way out of a wet paper bag and all the equipment you give them you might as well hand straight to the IS.)

And we don`t have much time either.
The very recent deployment of russian S 400 anti aircraft missiles basically gives Hezbollah a green light to have a go at Israel with long-range missiles.And that would probably mean WWW III

So its time to stop rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic and get some decisive action happening.And making deals with and appeasing and accommodating bullies like Assad and Putin is definitely the wrong way to go !!!

I hope this will get some people thinking
have a nice day

the kooka

The World Wide Refugee and Migrant Crisis and a possible solution for it

Worldwide there are approximately 60 million people on the move today, for economical or political reasons.All of them are from basically 3rd world countries and they are all trying to reach 1st world countries in the west.The sheer numbers are simply too much to handle in the West,let alone the integration and assimilation of them on this scale.

There are 2 main areas of origin of this problem : the Middle East and Africa.

So let’s have a closer look at them and see if there are any obvious solutions to the problem.

The Syrian conflict ist he mayor source oft he Middle Eastern refugees/migrants;if the war would be finished, all the Syrians, Iraqis etc could go home instead of going to a to them alien country with alien cultures (non muslim cultures ).

The main problem there ist he Assad regime and the IS; both will have to go. To much blood has been spilt for any of those two to remain in the future and no lasting peace will be achieved while they exist.
This feat cannot achieved by airstrikes alone,it will take highly motivated and reasonably equipped ground troops to achieve this and the only `local ` troops to be capable of this are the Kurds.

The Iraqi armi has proved over and over again that they cannot fight their way out of a wet paper bag and after 12 years of western training and pampering they are basically useless. Any weapons you give them you might as well give directly to the IS.
Bringing in the Iranians Shiite militias is not a good idea,it sows the seeds for future conflicts since they don`t get on with the Sunnis and vice versa.
Iraq as we know it is basically finished as a country and so is Syria.Southern Iraq is Shiite and with that at least leaning towards Iran ; the middle is sunny and partially leaning towards the IS because they are at least ignored by Bagdad and are not supported and armed against the IS by the current Iraqi government.
The north is kurdish anyway as is the north of Syria and the eastern part of Turkey. They have the wish and the economical as well as military muscle to get rid of the IS and then form their own country comprising northern Syria , northern Iraq and eastern Turkey.

Erduan in Turkey knows this , but wants to establish his own dictatorship in Turkey so it looks like he made a pretty dirty deal with Obama :
America can use their air bases in Turkey for attacks on IS and probably get more missile silos against the Soviets in eastern Turkey, and in return Turkey got a green light to bomb Kurdish ( PKK ) positions in Iraq and establish a `bufferzone` along the Turkish Syria border which is a kurdish area.
By bombing the Kurdish positions in Iraq Erduan destabilized Turkey enough to call new elections ,which is what he wanted since he lost his total majority in the last one.
By creating a ` buffer zone` along the Syrian border in kurdish areas one gets the suspicion he might want to re-establish Ata Turks bygone empire.He certainly does not hide his animosity towards the Assad-regime and has favoured IS in the past, so it would have taken a pretty good bribe to make him change tack.

There is another angle to this : Russia supports the Assad regime militarily as well as Iran. That turns this into a smoldering superpower confrontation. This is probably why the West didn`t declare a `no fly zone `over Syria which would have helped the Syrian people considerably by preventing Assads barrel bombs and air strikes which are a major reason for the refugee problem.

So what had Obama on his mind ??? get Turkish ground troops to route the IS and take over the remnants of Syria eventually ?

This major shift in politics just prolonged this war by at least 10 years,since the Kurds will wind up with their own country one way or another because neither Iraq nor Syria will get back on their feet in their past ways.

By the way,a few days after this change of policy was announced, an Australian man who was stopped several months ago from leaving Australia to fight with the Kurds, was charged under the terrorist act.

Unless we, the West, want to again to commit large contingents of ground troops to the middle east, we better change tack.

In the end the middle east will have to find their own equilibrium and the best bet to bring this about in maybe 1 or 2 years are the kurdish troops with a little help from the West
Anything else will prolong and deepen the conflict considerably and with that the overwhelming migrant/refugee problem from tha area.

The solution is not to accommodate more refugees,it is to get rid of the cause of the problem as soon as possible !!!

In the meantime the Syrian refugees could be accommodated in Albania and Kosovo, dirt poor but Moslem countries.The EU would probably be willing to pump enough money into those places to facilitate this program, a lot cheaper and better than to bring all those people to non-Moslem countries.No assimilation problems here.
Since Russia is one of the main problems in this conflict,they should really take the bulk oft he refugees as well.

Now to Africa :

This is a lot easier, because to the reasons here are mainly economical. Yes, there are some conflicts in some countries , but they are regional ,i e people can move within their own country out of harms way.
Most African countries are pretty rich, plenty of resources : oil , diamonds, minerals, metals etc. The biggest problems here are corruption greed and cronyism and all of these are home-made. Most oft he wealth does not get past the top 5 or 10 % oft he population. So some mental developement aid would go a long way,however the real change has to come from within the governments and people living there.

By resettling large numbers of those people else where, you just spread the problem because they bring their mentality with them. Very few oft hem have qualifications that are acceptable in a western country, so why bring them here??? lots oft hem have no chance and will turn to crime, drugs,prostitution and poverty.
It will be a lot cheaper and easier to pick one african country that has some potential and send them all there and then train them up to a reasonable standard with aid money; the emphasis being on mental developement and skills that enable them to have a reasonable existence.

African governments who don`t look after their citizens should not receive any aid what so ever .Real bad boys like Mugabe who turned Zimbabwe from the african bread basket into a basket case should be treated like a Lepper and boycotted left right and center until he gets out of government.

Again,real change can only happen from within, but in the meantime there is no reason to spread the problem else where.
ist a lot cheaper financially and socially to treat this problem within Africa then outside of it.

Most of the man-made problems boil down to the same old root cause : a way of thinking, namely greed for power and money.

And this way of thinking is responsible for the current conflicts and the mass migration the world over.And unless we tackle this way of thinking, nothing will change.

Without greed for power by somebody,there are no armed conflicts, but some power sharing etc.However ,this doesn`t mean to give in to bullies,vice versa. You deal with them appropriately by reducing interaction with them as far as possible , i e political and economic sanctions and isolation and in extreme cases military force to remove them.( if Russia stops supporting the butcher of Damascus, Assad,he will fall within a short time . If the IS were not supported by somebody,they would fade away).

Without greed for money by somebody, most Africans would have a chance to achieve a reasonable existence and life style.

The good news is, greed is only learned behaviour.A very young chid cannot distinguish between itself and its environment. if you cannot do this , you cannot be greedy. So there is hope.
The main tool to achieve this change of thinking is education

step one : first of all declare greed for what it is : the largest and most widespread and destructive mental disease on earth today and the
root cause of most man-made destruction.( this will step on a lot of toes !! )

step two : replace greed with mindfull thinking, i e some consideration for others and our life support system and with that sustainability.

You see, human society runs well on good will ,however where ever that is displaced by greed,things get really nasty.

The ones who can achieve this change of thinking will become part of the future, the others will suffer the fate ot the dinosaurs:
because they were unable to adapt to changed circumstances they became extinct.

I hope this gets you thinking,

have a nice day

THE MIDDLE EAST CRISIS : THE GAZA CONFLICT

The middle east crisis :The Gaza conflict

This latest Israel-Gaza conflict was triggered by the murder of 3 Israeli teenagers on the West-Bank, and from there on it spiralled into a fully blown conflict. There are multiple reasons for the underlying tensions in this region, but in the end the solution hast o be negotiated.
Until 1991 the Palestinians under Arafat got most of what they wanted from Israel by negotiation , except Jerusalem.Then they made a cardinal mistake to side with a looser, Saddam Hussein. From there on it was downhill.
Today Hamas runs the Gaza strip and they don`t even acknowledge Israels right to exist.What do you expect with that attitude ? Do you seriously think, if the Israelis were to leave tomorrow, there would be peace in that region ? Do pigs fly ? for example : Hamas came to Government in Gaza by force and they don`realy get on with Fatah who is running the West-Bank. and if Hamas would be in Israel and the Israeli in Gaza, they would have driven them into the Mediterranean long ago without mercy.
They would not warn Israel of pending attacks so they can get civilians out of the way.
Right now, Hamas likes civilian casualties because the public images of hurt civilians trigger a lot of negative emotions in people and fan anti-Semitism worldwide. If you don`t want these casualties just stop firing those missiles. But emotional pictures and propaganda are a pretty effective weapon of Hamas. How low can you get ? Using human shields to protect your missiles and positions and then using the unavoidable civilian casualties as a propaganda tool has to be the pits of human behaviour !!

But don`t get me wrong, the Israelis have not exactly been sunday schoolboys either, there are land issues to be solved and the 2 basic laws that guarantee a never-ending conflict :
blood revenge and collective punishment.
They are practised by everybody down there and until that changes, no lasting peace will ever eventuate.

So which way to go, to go somewhere ? international pressure on Hamas to stop their rocket attacks will be a good starting point.Since Gaza only survives with the help of external support, this would not be too hard to achieve as long as the political will is there. At the same time the Israelis will have to be brought tot he negotiating table which would probably not be to hard since they want peace more than Hamas.
An acknowledgement of Israels right to exist by Hamas would be a good starting point for any further negotiations.

War starts in the mind of man , so does peace. The ever-increasing suffering of the civilians of that region should be reason enough for the international community to force this issue with economical means.
Emotionally charged antisemitism is definitely not the answer, it will make things worse and solve nothing.

There is another worrying aspect of this conflict : Hamas is somewhat affiliated with Hezbollah,a defacto part of the Lebanese government and is supplied by Iran via Syria and the Assad regime which is backed by Russia.
Like in the Ukraine,the undercurrent here is one of a superpower confrontation.

i hope this gets a few people thinking,
have a nice day,
the Kookabarra